The White Heat of Change

This week the Centre for Economics and Business Research predicted that by 2015 the UK will drop from 7^th to 11^th in the list of the world’s biggest economies.  Many people will be surprised to learn that China, India and Russia don’t already outrank the British economy, but no, apparently this will happen sometime in the next six years.

As we come to the end of the decade (and don’t let the Queen tell you it’s still the noughties for one more year!), it’s tempting to look back and ponder ten years of constant change.  Ten years ago the internet was already a part of many of our lives; now it’s insinuated itself into our very culture.  Ten years ago we’d all heard of terrorism but most of us had never heard of Al Qaeda.  And ten years ago we all knew that eventually the Chinese would start to throw their economic weight around; this is the decade in which it’s actually started to happen.

But it would be fatuous to spend too much time looking back, because the forces which brought about these and other dramatic changes will move even more quickly in the 2010s and 2020s than they have in the 2000s.       

Of all the modules on the Mini-MBA, ironically it’s Module 9, Management of Change, which has had to be revised and rewritten more than any other.  In one way or another, everyone from prime ministers to humble business trainers is busy coping with the white heat of change.

Meanwhile on the Markets...
A pair of Belgians are about to present us with a betting opportunity.  Next month the new tennis season kicks off with the Australian Open, and currently Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin are both around 4/1 for the title.  In Clijsters' case, on the face of it there's some justification.  After all, she did win the last Grand Slam tournament, the US Open last September.  However, she played that tournament with no pressure whatsoever, as she was returning from a short-lived retirement.  
Henin's short odds also seem to be based on Clijsters' victory - the theory seems to be that if Kim can do it on her return, then Justine can too.  But this displays a good deal of wishful thinking.
In my view, the two Belgian returnees' odds are both far too short.  This means that the other contenders' odds have been pushed wider than they should be.
These days there are about a dozen women with some kind of chance.  However, many of the top players have at one time or another suffered in the heat of Melbourne's midsummer.  Not so Serena Williams, and not so Svetlana Kuznetsova.  Williams is generally available around 11/4, and, if you prefer a longshot, Kuznetsova is currently around 20/1.  Both players appear to be value at these levels. 
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