A Deep Frozen Tipping Point?

When Americans watch a televised game of football in the UK, they’re always mystified when the commentator refers to a “Mexican Wave”.  To Americans, it’s not a Mexican Wave, it’s just a wave, and it’s been the favoured pastime of bored sports crowds for several decades.  But in Britain and most of the soccer-loving world, people were only vaguely aware of the phenomenon until the 1986 World Cup in Mexico, where most of the games were particularly boring, forcing audiences to make their own entertainment.  Hence the Mexican Wave.  Pretty soon after that, you could hardly attend a major game in this country without at some point being obliged to stand up and stick your arms in the air – and that’s still true today.

The Mexican Wave may seem an inconsequential thing, but the story illustrates something much more important which I think may be about to happen.  The 1986 World Cup is a good example of a tipping point.  It brought about a quick change in behaviour, and something which probably would have caught on slowly and late, happened quickly and immediately.  Lovers of synchronised standing up and sitting down again have been happy ever since. 

As I look out of my office window today, this is what I see.

We’re currently in the middle of the most prolonged cold snap since 1982.  The date is significant because it means that this is the first long series of “snow days” since it became easy for most office workers to work from home.  In 1982 there was no WWW, no VPN and darn few other TLAs.  If you couldn’t make it into work, the company lost your services and you lost pay. 

Although the technology has existed for several years, the take-up of remote access for work purposes has been lamentably slow in this country, and indeed in most countries.  Although the idea has been around long enough for the term “telecommuting” to have been coined back in the 1970s, most people still regard working from home as something of a novelty – despite both the ever-improving technology, and the environmental arguments for saving fuel use and reducing congestion.

Perhaps this cold snap will be the moment when employers rethink the need for their office workers to drive into the office every day.  I hope in hindsight the snows of 2009-2010 will be a very positive tipping point which will benefit the planet.  Am I being naïve, or just hopelessly optimistic?

Meanwhile on the markets...
Making money on I'm a Celebrity and Celebrity Big Brother is a great excuse to watch some guilt-free trash TV.  And as the bookies put so little effort into the markets they dismiss as "specials", you can sometimes catch them out.  If you've been watching CBB since it started last week, you will have noticed that most of the female contestants are complete non-starters.  One's known only as a homewrecker and provider of services to old men, one's a model with zero charm, and one's a brothelkeeper who seems quite pleasant but is hardly likely to build up a following.  The only two with a chance in the "Top Female" market are Lady Sovereign and Stephanie Beacham.  You can bet on Lady Sov at 7/4 with William Hill and Stephanie at 6/4 with Bet365 for an almost guaranteed profit.

If you don't already have an account with William Hill, you can even have the Lady Sov bet for free by clicking on the link.